The Nadal’s greatest wins

Rafael Nadal played today with German Philipp Kohlschreiber his 1,000th match on the ATP circuit. 822 wins and 178 losses for the third best percentage of victories of the Open Era, after Borg and Djokovic. All an ephemeris for one of the best players all time and a universal symbol, recognized throughout the world for his sportsmanship, his hunger for victory and his irreducibility.

In this special moment, we want to remember the 10 most significant victories of the Manacorí. They may not always coincide with the most important ones of their career, since we have sought, besides enhancing his great and innumerable successes, those milestones that best help to describe his path.

1.- NADAL GRADUATES. 2nd round Masters Series Hamburg 2003. Nadal (87) to Moya (4) 7-5 6-4

It was only the ninth ATP match for Rafa who had broken into the circuit like a cyclone, with 5 wins in his first 8 matches and defeating Albert Costa, number 7 in the world, the previous week in Monte Carlo in what was his debut before a top-10.

Nadal and Moya knew each other very well. They trained together regularly in Mallorca and had played among them numerous matches in which, as Moyá often recalls, the young man of 16 years always was defeated.

It is reasonable to think that Moyá, then number 4 of the world, would enter the court calm and sure of the victory. However, Nadal already anticipated that he knew nothing of complex and played at maximum intensity to score the victory in straight sets. The young promise waited for the official party to defeat his friend for the first time. Nadal was 2-0 with the top-10 in only 9 professional matches. Perhaps for the general public the data went unnoticed, but for the world of tennis was all a warning of what was coming.

2.- JUMPING TO THE FAME. Final Davis Cup, Sevilla 2004. Nadal (51) to Roddick (2) 6-7 (2) 6-2 7-6 (6) 6-2

Spain reached the Davis Cup final for the third time in five years. Moya, who longed to win the trophy, was fully involved in the goal and was the undisputed leader of the Spanish team. Nadal was in all the crosses and was the hero before Czech Republic and France.

However, facing the final, Nadal’s lineup with Roddick, then number 2 in the world, seemed quite bold. Too much responsibility for a young man of 18 years and very short experienced. In addition, Robredo and Ferrero, teammates, were much better ranked in the ATP list and they were much more experienced. With alternatives of such, the risk of playing Rafa seemed excessive. However, Moya and Perlas insisted. Nadal had to play.

Roddick might be surprised by the Spanish team’s decision. If so, the wonder would last a little. Rafa played a brilliant game, wasting energy and intensity. His superhuman defenses, incredible counterattacks and explosive celebrations enraged La Cartuja and millions of viewers. He was born not only a great champion, but also a spectacular and emotional player who moved in the extraordinary with naturalness.

3.- KING OF THE CLAY. Final Masters Series Roma 2005. Nadal (7) to Coria (11) 6-4 3-6 6-3 4-6 7-6 (6)

Nadal came from winning Monte Carlo – precisely before Coria, the best player on brick dust of the moment – and the Godo defeating Ferrero in the final, revealing himself as a huge player on clay.

Coria arrived with desire of revenge and ready to make use of the hierarchy, if not of the ranking – by then Rafa already was ahead – if at least the one of the experience. The match was tremendous, to the limit of the 5 sets and with a duration of 5 hours and 14 minutes, the longest final ever disputed in a Masters 1000.

Coria went 3-0 up in the fifth set and looked as if he could tip the balance in his favor. But Nadal made the miracle again to come back in extremis and finish the game in the tie-break. It was Nadal’s 17th consecutive victory over clay- in a streak that would last up to 81 wins – and, in the absence of the Roland Garros doctorate, which proclaimed the Balearic as the king on that surface.

4.- THE FIRST BITE TO THE MUSKETEERS CUP. Semifinal Roland Garros 2005. Nadal (5) to Federer (1) 6-3 4-6 6-4 6-3

Rafa missed the previous edition of Roland Garros by injury and debuted that year in the Parisian clay with all the pronouncements in favor. In the horizon only the stumbling block of Roger Federer was perceived, already with vitola of quasi invincible and that arrived at Paris with a streak of 57 victories and 2 defeats. The Swiss and the Spanish fell in the same half of the draw and the confrontation in semifinals was inevitable. An authentic final in which Nadal ended up overwhelming to the number one of the world demonstrating that it had no rival on clay. Two days later, Rafa raised his first Cup of the Musketeers. The future would hold another eight.

  1. FEDERER CLAUDICS. Final Masters Series Roma 2006. Nadal (2) to Federer (1) 6-7 (7) 7-6 (5) 6-4 2-6 7-6 (5)

In 2006 Rafa remained untreatable on clay. Three weeks earlier he had beaten Federer in Monte Carlo and already aheads the h2h 4-1. The Swiss, at the pinnacle of his career, came to this appointment playing like angels and willing to prove that he was the best on any surface. And certainly Federer was close to achieving it; 4-1 in the fifth set, then two match balls with 5-4 and finally could not materialize a 5-3 lead in the final tie-break. The intensity of Nadal, which began to beat all kinds of records of precocity, again frustrated the Swiss. And by the way showed that there was no more difficult task in the professional circuit than to win Nadal the last point of a match.

6.- THE GAME OF HIS LIFE. Final Wimbledon 2008. Nadal (2) to Federer (1) 6-4 6-4 6-7 (5) 6-7 (8) 9-7

Nadal, already four times champion in Paris, came for the third time to the Wimbledon final. The previous year he fell in the same game against the Swiss in 5 sets in what was one of the hardest defeats of his career. Rafa entered the court willing not to let the story be repeated and clearly prevailed in the first two sets. But Federer, who had been unbeaten for 5 years on grass with a 65 wins streak, won the next two in tie-breaks. With the shadows of the night hovering over the central Wimbledon and excitement overflowing everything and everyone Nadal achieved the break in the fifteenth game of the fifth set to confirm it in the following and finally fall victorius -after 4 hours and 48 minutes of game and 413 points disputed – on the green carpet of the field with the most ancient tradition of the world. An end that has remained forever as one of the most valuable jewels of the golden book of all time tennis.

7.- THE GLORY OF THE OLYMPIC GOLD. Semifinals Beijing Olympics 2008 Nadal (2) to Djokovic (3) 6-4 1-6 6-4

Nadal faced his first Olympic Games as a virtual number one, although not yet in the ATP ranking, and at the best moment of his career. On the other hand, Djokovic, number 3, was conforming each day like the great alternative to the binomial Federer-Nadal. The two titans crashed in the semi-finals. Nadal started well, getting the first heat. But the Serbian reacted and impressed a great rhythm overwhelmed Nadal in the second. In the third and final, with Djokovic constantly pressing the service of Nadal, came the opportunity of the Balearic in the tenth game, in a break point that Djokovic dominates but misses an easy smash that has gone down in history. The constant fight of Rafa this time was the prize of the Olympic gold that would conquer before the Chilean Fernando González.

8.- THE FEDERER’S TEARS. Australian Open Final 2009 Nadal (1) to Federer (2) 7-5 3-6 7-6 (3) 3-6 6-2

The 19th matchup between Nadal and Federer was also the first in a Grand Slam over hard surface. Nadal had finished with five years of reigning of the Swiss in the ranking ATP and the Swiss longed for the revenge in a favorable surface. The match was the umpteenth marathon between these two colossus and fell again on the side of the Spanish who managed to defeat the genius of Basel in the finals of three different Grand Slam. In the end, Federer could not contain the disappointment and burst into tears at the awards ceremony. Rafa was consolidated as number one and as a total player, able to win titles on any surface.

9.- NOT AT HOME. Semi-finals Roland Garros 2013. Nadal (4) to Djokovic (1) 6-4 3-6 6-1 6-7 (3) 9-7

Djokovic, number one in the world, had become a real black beast for Nadal. In 2011 the Serbian had defeated Rafa in 6 consecutive finals and returned to do so in the dramatic end of Australia 2012. However, he still had not been able to raise the Cup of the Musketeers; In 2011 Federer took him away from the final in an incredible semi and in 2012 Nadal proved that he was master and lord in the Philippe Chatrier.

The semi 2013, with Nadal newly incorporated to the circuit after his problems of the previous year, arrived with the maximum expectation. It seemed that this time the Serbian would not let the occasion pass. The game was very hard and very even. In the fifth set, with Djokovic advantage 4-3 40-40 and serve, the Serbian sends a right to a half track, strong and deep, Nadal’s backhand returns very short. The number one volley down to a few centimeters of the net, but it becomes disjointed and ends up swallowing this one. A point for Rafa that will end breaking Djokovic and in the end winning the match. Another victory of Nadal to the limit of the impossible.

10.- RETURN TO NUMBER ONE. Final of the US Open 2013. Nadal (2) to Djokovic (1) 6-2 3-6 6-4 6-1

With the 2011 effect thinning out, Nadal and Djokovic were once again in New York with the number one at stake. Nadal had won five of the last six games with the Serbian – while four were on clay – and had the opportunity to put a finishing touch to his spectacular comeback. The match was matched in their first two sets, but Djokovic ended up bending over after conceding the third heat. Rafa thus obtained its second US Open and two months later closed for the third time the season like number one of the world.

Federer challenges the History

The spectacular and triumphant come back of the Swiss Roger Federer has unleashed again the Federmanía and opened all type of speculations on the new records that could beat the Swiss of following the line of victories with which it has broken in the tennis season.

The Swiss has always made it clear that their main priority is to stay cool and healthy, without being punished excessively and with no other objective than to play the best possible and have fun on the court. However, their excellent results belied such modest goals. Certainly the Swiss will take care of their schedule to avoid overloads and injuries and always remain hungry for competition. But even with that limitation, Federer seems capable of achieving more ambitious goals.

The Swiss is playing with a lot of freedom and ease, without fear of defeat, always to attack and shortening points and matches to the maximum, limiting physical wear and tear. In order to succeed in this style, great doses of inspiration are necessary, something that the genius of Basel seems to have left over. The advantage is that in this way it is possible that you can extend your career for some more seasons. With 35 years and 6 months the results that Federer is looking like magic and thinking that he can play at this level until 37 or 38 years seems much more improbable, but what is no doubt is that if for someone Such a thing is possible, that’s just Roger Federer. To three strokes of average per point who knows until when can be competitive.

In we have speculated a little with some objectives that, even in spite of himself, could be within reach of the Swiss and we have selected these four:


There is no doubt that if Federer has a specific goal in mind, this is it. Federer shares, with Pete Sampras and William Renshaw, the record of victories in male singles of Wimbledon, with 7 titles. The Swiss raised his seventh silver cup in 2012 and has since pursued his eighth title insistently, runner-up in 2014 and 2015 and semis last year. There are still three months for the London event, but there is no doubt that the Swiss will conscientiously prepare the tournament and if it is able to reach in its current conditions will have as many or more chances than any other.


Certainly, and as hehas repeatedly stated, the ATP ranking is not something that worries Federer. However, with the results with which he has started the season the Swiss can be seen immersed in the fight for number one. At the moment he is ahead in the Race to Nadal in 1410 points, Wawrinka in 1635, Murray in 2205 and Djokovic in 2570. Already more than considerable distances. To a greater abundance, Djokovic and Murray have confirmed that they will not be in Miami, so the distance on the two major favorites of the circuit could increase even above 3000 points. A reserve that can be enough to compensate a very short or not remarkable results clay season.

Federer could be found starting the grass season very close to the leadership in the Race and with very auspicious tournaments ahead, such Halle, Wimbledon, Cincinnati, Basel or the Masters Cup.  On the other hand, it is quite likely – given the bad start of the year for the two favorites – that the number one is resolved this year with many fewer points than in the last seasons, possibly even below 10,000 so that the Swiss could have options even with a very trimmed calendar.

If the Swiss reach the number one would become the most veteran player in the ATP ranking, a record currently held by André Agassi, who in the last list he headed, 25-08-2003, was 33 years and three months old. It would also pulverize Connors’ record of the longest time between the first and last list as number one, which for the American is 8 years and 10 months. Any number one of Federer in the future would suppose that would have happened more than 13 years after the first leadership of the Swiss, 2-2-2004. Oldest #1 More time between first and last #1


A barrier that only managed to cross Jimmy Connors who reached the 109 titles. The record of the great left-hander is far, but the barrier of 100 is envisaged as a possibility. Federer joined his formidable track record with 6 titles in 2015 and 5 in 2014. Considering this average, he would need a couple of seasons to reach that  perfect 100. That means to be winning titles at 37 years old, something that in the current circuit has only achieved Ivo Karlovic, winner of Newport and Los Cabos last year at age 37.

More accessible for the Swiss would be to beat Ivan Lendl’s 94-title mark, the second-best ATP brand behind Connors. In any case, and since Federer is going to play few tournaments and all of great level, to beat those marks does not seem exactly simple. Most ATP titles


A really tricky goal. Australian Ken Rosewall won the 1972 Australian Open with 37 years and a month and 25 days. That means that not even the 2018 US Open – except changes in the calendar – would be worth to Federer to displace the Aussie from that honorary dean. The Swiss had to win a Grand Slam in 2019 to achieve that achievement at a higher age than Rosewall. Oldest GS champion

Preview Bellucci-Monteiro, Rio de Janeiro R16

Over his victory over a weak Nishikori, Bellucci looks his side of draw free of the main headed players until the semifinal round where he could clash Carreno or Dolgopolov. A great chance for the Brazilian who can make profitable his first round victory. Thiago Monteiro, his opponent today is also his doubles partner in a team that Bellucci leads clearly. Monteiro, left handed as well, is a young player and the respect to the most experenced and successful Bellucci could be a key factor in the match.

Preview US Open Final: Djokovic vs Wawrinka

This is the final match of the US Open which rewrites Roland Garros´s final last year.

The H2H is dominated by the world number one 19-4. In Grand Slam the score is 4-2 for the Serbian, but with two victories for the Swiss in the last three clashes in GS, Australia 2014 and Roland Garros 2015. Among them, victory in the fifth set of Djokovic in the Australian Open 2015, 7-6 3-6 6-4 4-6 6-0. This will be the fourth final between them; Djokovic won in Vienna 2007 and Rome 2008 and Wawrinka got the victory in the ultra-famous match of Paris last year, this was the last victory of Wawrinka over the number one in the world. On hard surface the blance is 14-2 to Djokovic.

There is no doubt that Wawrinka is an expert on Grand Slam. Since 2014 he has played 58 matches in these tournaments and he has won 49, a great percentage, 84.48% of effectiveness. On Masters 1000 he has a balance of 35 wins and 24 losses (59.32%), and in the rest of individual tournaments he is in 43-13 (76,79%).  So there is no doubt that the Swiss shows his best at majors.

In order to give value to that percentage (84,48%) of Wawrinka on GS the last three years suffice it to say that his percentage is highest to Nadal (32-8, 80%), Federer (47-10, 82,46%) and even Murray (59-11, 84,29%). Only the impressive 93.33% (70-5) of Djokovic on Grand Slam these last three seasons exceed Wawrinka´s record.

The Swiss results on GS are magnificent: since US Open 2013, two titles, four semi-finals, three quarters finals and this next final, in the last 13 Grand Slam tournaments. Only on three occasions lost the Swiss before the quarters finals.

Djokovic, for his part, aspires to his 13th Grand Slam to become the fourth player who most titles of Grand Slam has won, after Federer (17), Sampras and Nadal (both with 14). Currently he is tied with Roy Emerson to 12 titles.

In the last 30 Grand Slam, since Wimbledon 2009, the Serbian has won 11, has played 7 finals, 7 semi-finals and 4 quarter-finals. Only last Wimbledon, Djokovic was beaten before quarter-finals, breaking a streak of 28 GS tournaments reaching at least at quarter-finals. And by the way, that streak of Novak is the second best in the tennis history, only behind Federer who got a streak of 36 consecutive tournaments reaching at least the round of quarter finals, since Wimbledon 2004 to Roland Garros 2013.

Also the defeat against Querrey broke another record for Djokovic, who until that match held a streak of 30 consecutive victories in Grand Slam, ATP and all time absolute record without skipping any tournament. Bill Tilden won 57 consecutive matches in Grand Slam and Rod Laver 31, but in both series they skipped tournaments in which Tilden and Laver did not participate.

Djokovic´s numbers this season are impressive. 56 wins and 5 losses (91,80%) and the titles of Doha, Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, Madrid, Roland Garros and Toronto. He reached Rome´s final and the disappointments of Wimbledon and Rio as counterpoint to an amazing season. Between last year and this season he has a balance of 138 wins and 11 losses. Against top-10 his score this year is 18-1 (he was defeated by Murray in Rome) and his streak since last year is already reaching 50-6. Djokovic´s total balance against top-10 is 176-81, a 68,48% which is the second best mark in history, after the 74,19% of Borg who got 115 victories in 155 matches against top of his time.

Wawrinka has to settle with most modest numbers: 38-12 this season, with the titles of Chennai, Dubai and Geneva. The Swiss has reached the semi-finals of Roland Garros and Toronto. Against top-10 he only has got a single victory, facing Nishikori last friday, and three defeats. He has played 21 matches against the ATP number one (6 with Nadal, 7 with Federer and 8 with Djokovic) and he only has won twice, both at GS finals, against Nadal in Australia 2014 and with Djokovic in Roland Garros 2015.

On finals, Djokovic has a balance of 66 wins and 27 losses, a 71% which places him as the 7th player more effective at finals in the ATP history, behind Muster, Davydenko, Enquist, Sampras, Borg and Clerc, counting players with at least 25 finals.

Wawrinka´s balance on finals is 14 wins and 9 losses (almost a 61%), but he is now on a streak of 10 consecutive finals won and in the last four he has not lost a single set. The players which he has defeated in those 10 finals unbeaten are impressive: Roger-Vasselin, Nadal, Federer, Bedene, Berdych, Djokovic, Paire, Coric, Baghdatis and Cilic.

The run of the finalists in this US Open have been very different. Djokovic has had an easy way; Vesely did not play at second round, Youzhny just played 7 games in third round and Tsonga had to retired after the second set. Despite that, the Serbian has lost two sets (Janowicz in first round and Monfils at semi-finals) although he has not been in serious difficulties. Wawrinka has suffered much more, especially in the third round, when he had to save a match point facing Evans that resolved with a second serve ace. The Swiss has lost 5 sets in the tournament and has played six tie breaks -Djokovic none- winning four of them.

Wawrinka has won at service a 68,51% of his points and a 89,17% of his games, losing 13 of 120 games. Djokovic has won a 66,30% of his total points and a 84,75% of his games, losing 9 of 59 games. The Serbian is the best returner of the tournament (after Youzhny) with 49,63% of total return points won and has received 28 breaks in 59 games (47,46%). Wawrinka is in a 39.56% of total points won and a 24.79% of breaks points converted, 29 in 117 opportunities. The Swiss holds the sixth best mark of the tournament saving break balls, 75,93% (41/54). In this classification also Djokovic has done it very well saving 22 of 31 break balls. The Swiss has been 17 hours and 51 minutes on court, for the 8 hours and 58 minutes of Novak, almost half.



The forecast is always the same when Djokovic plays, Serbian´s victory, and this case is not an exception. True is that Wawrinka is playing well, his victories against Del Potro and Nishikori have been convincing, his performance at Grand Slam are often quite good and he is on a streak of 10 consecutive finals won, including two of Grand Slam. Factors to be taken into account but those factors are not enough to compensate the huge superiority that Djokovic comes showing last years which are reflected in their H2H balance, clearly favourable to the Serbian. Also, for once, the bookmakers give a surprising 1,33 for the victory of the number one. Perhaps the shoulder´s problems that the Serbian showed in the match with Monfils have could also influence. Anyway, we believe that this 1.33 is more than interesting.

Preview US Open: Murray vs Nishikori

This is another high voltage showdown to conclude this US Open quarter finals. One of the big favourite against an outsider of name and prestige although few times he is capable of demonstrate that condition at major events.

The H2H is clearly dominated by Murray by 7 wins to 1. The Japanese´s victory was in Masters Cup 2014, in the round robin. Apart from that match, only in his Copa Davis´s duel this year he could get in trouble to Murray. The other six matches have been an easy ride for the Scottish who not only has not lost a set, but he has not even needed to play tiebreak to decide a single set.

The stats of their clashes reflect the enormous differences showed in their matches. 47 aces from Murray by just 9 of Nishikori, 37 breaks by 17… Murray has won 62% of total games played and almost 57% of total points… looking at the stats seems as if his rival would have been a top-100.

Murray´s season is being outstanding. With 54 wins and only 7 losses gets 88,52% of effectiveness, an absolute record in his entire career. In addition, in recent months the British is outdoing himself, with 26 wins in his last 27 games. Since Queen’s only Cilic could defeat him in the final of Cincinnati. He has won the titles of Rome, Queen’s, Wimbledon and the Olympic tournament of Rio and has been finalist in Australia and at Roland Garros. Three of his 7 defeats this year have been at the hands of Djokovic, who beat him in the two final of Grand Slam mentioned before and in Madrid.

Nishikori is also completing a great season, with 50 wins and 14 defeats, although he only has could enrich his track record of triumphs with the title of Memphis. He has been finalist in Miami, Barcelona and Canada and got the bronze medal in Rio. The Japanese’s real problem is that it is being hard for him overcome the super champions’ wall: in addition of the 1-7 with Murray, his balance with Djokovic is 2-10 and 2-9 with Nadal. Just with Federer the balance becomes tighter, 2-4.

Murray has solved with much ease his duels with Rosol, Granollers and Dimitrov (only 21 games lost in those three matches) and he only had problems in the two first sets of his match with Lorenzi, who was able to snatch him the only set he has lost in the tournament. The British is second, quite close to Djokovic, in percentage of games and points won in the tournament, with a 66,67% and a 57,29% respectively, these stats show the great superiority with which he has closed his matches.

Nishikori has also overcome with solvency his matches; however, he lost a set with Becker, Khachanov and Mahut. He has defended very well his service, winning 63 of his 70 service games, losing just 7 games at serve and winning 21 return games.



The forecast cannot be other than a Murray´s victory, probably the player in the best form of circuit. However, the quota offered by his victory, 1.17, does not offer much attractive. Nor there is value in the 5 to 1 payed for Nishikori´s victory, nor the 1.73 paid for Japanese´s one set. From our point of view only the 2.00 paid for the victory in three consecutive sets of Murray offers a certain appeal.


Gabriel García

Preview US Open: Wawrinka vs Del Potro

Train wreck in this quarter final’s clash. The precedents support Del Potro who leads 4-2 the H2H, with Wimbledon´s second round match this year as last encounter between them, solved it out with Del Potro´s victory 3-6 6-3 7-6 6-3. In that match Del Potro ended  Wawrinka´s streak, Stan has been reached at least to eighth finals in the last 8 Grand Slam played.

The duels between these two players have been characterized by a greater equality. Only two matches, one by each side, have been resolved in consecutive sets. The stats show that parity of forces, slightly inclined towards the side of the Argentine. In breaks, Del Potro wins by 19 to 17, a 2-2 draw on tie-breaks and the difference in points after six matches played is just 28, 575 to 547.

Earlier we have talked in other previews about the performance of the players throughout the season. Del Potro, after reappearing in Delray Beach after two years without hardly play, has a balance of 22 wins and 9 losses and, above all, a clearly upward trend. After a good performance at Wimbledon, he has completed a great Olympic tournament, beating Djokovic and Nadal, and at this US Open he has already step in at quarter finals. Since Wimbledon 2013 he did not reach that round in a Grand Slam tournament. He has won 9 of his last 10 matches, 4 of them against top-10 players, and seems to have recover his best level as much as his current ranking (142) do not reflect it.

Wawrinka has played 48 matches this season, of which he has won 36. He has got three titles (Chennai, Dubai and Geneva) extending his excellent streak of 10 consecutive finals won. He well defended his title of Roland Garros 2015, reaching semi-finals where he was defeated by Murray. He also reached that round in Toronto. However, the Swiss has shown some irregularity, he has lost the 3 matches played against top-10 players (Del Potro has that category, whatever it says his current ranking) and he has lost incredible matches, as the one facing Goffin in Indian Wells.

Stats are favourable to Del Potro in this US Open who has scored more aces (34/32), less doubles faults (13/16), best percentage of return points won (42.36%/ 40,23%), at service (68,75%/68,38), and has spent much less time on court (8 hours and 21 minutes / 11 hours and 32 minutes). Del Potro has exceeded his four commitments without losing a single set (together with Monfils, the only player who can say such a thing) while Wawrinka not only has lost three sets, but he also saved a match point facing Evans, at third round, with a miraculous ace with his second serve. Wawrinka pointed his head, but perhaps it would have been more authentic look at the sky.



Everything points to Del Potro´s victory. He leads the H2H, his form seems to be splendid, stats support him and has shown a confident and ambition that contrasts with the somewhat erratic image that Wawrinka has shown several times. With a quota of 1,61 we think there is certain value on it. Also seems to be attractive and with value, although logically with greater risk, Del Potro´s victory in three consecutive sets with quota of 4,33.


Gabriel García

Preview US Open: Djokovic vs Tsonga

After Federer, Nadal and Murray, Tsonga is the player of the circuit who has defeated Djokovic more times. Up to six times the French have been able to beat to the undisputed leader of world tennis. And that is, in their first matches, Tsonga was a really hard opponent for Djokovic. From 2008 to 2010 they played seven times with the result of 5-2 for the French. Then, since 2011, year of the real take off of the Serbian, the tide was turned and the balance since then is 13-1 for Djokovic; adding that 11 of those 13 victories were in consecutive sets. The total balance is 15-6 but with a domain almost absolute by the number one in the past years.

Almost everything has been said about the Djokovic´s records. Since 2011 he has won 11 of the 23 Grand Slam played and he has been finalist in 6 finals. In the last 6 seasons he has only missed 6 finals of Grand Slams. He holds the absolute record of Masters 1000 titles (30) and since 2011 he has won 25 of the 52 played. Bearing in mind that he also has won the four latest editions of ATP Finals, it turns out that Djokovic has won 40 of the last 80 major titles of the ATP calendar, so half to him and half to everyone else.

He has a balance this season of 54 wins and 5 defeats, a stratospheric 91,53% but less than the brutal 82-6 (93,18%) he achieved last year. His mark facing top-10 is astonishing: 18-1 this year and a streak of 49-6 since 2015.

With all this numbers, Tsonga´s records and any player´s numbers seems to be smaller. The French has a balance this season of 28 wins and 13 losses with the semi-finals in Monte Carlo and the quarterfinals at Wimbledon as his best results. Tsonga, who has won 12 ATP titles, does not win a tournament for almost a year, when he clinched the title in Metz 2015. The best performance of his career was, without doubt, Toronto 2014 when he won the title after defeating Djokovic, Murray, Dimitrov and Federer successively. On Grand Slam his best result is the final of the Australian Open 2008. Then he has two semi-finals at Wimbledon, two at Roland Garros and another one in Australia. In the U.S. Open, where he played for the eighth time, he has the quarterfinals of 2011 and 2015 as his best results.

Djokovic has had an easy walk until now in the tournament. After a first match something agitated against Janowicz, who won a set, he spent the following two rounds with 31 minutes on court. Walkover with Vesely and retired of Youzhny when he was winning 4-2 in the first set were his two following matches. In eighth finals, he got a comfortable victory against Kyle Edmund.

Tsonga comes with many more minutes on his legs after beating Anderson and Sock in the last two rounds. He is fourth in percentage of service points won with 69,82%, behind Karlovic, Isner and Murray. He has only received 4 breaks in the tournament.



All signs points to a new victory of Djokovic, as much as Tsonga is the first serious opponent who can get the Serbian in trouble in this tournament. The 3-0 in favour of Djokovic is paid to 1.73, quote that according to our system offers a value of a 17%. Considering that 13 of the last 15 victories of Djokovic over Tsonga have been in consecutive sets, including the last two showdowns in Grand Slam, we believe it may be an interesting option.


Gabriel García

Preview US Open: Monfils vs Pouille

A unique showdown between these two compatriots, last year in the Australian Open´s first round, with victory to Monfils in a very tough match in which he had to come from behind two sets down, 6-7 3-6 6-4 6-1 6-4.

Both French players come in a great time at this match. Pouille is making a fantastic progression in a season in which he started as 78 in the ATP list and now he has climbed up to the number 25 and rising. After this tournament he will be at least top-20. 27 wins and 17 losses and quite a few numbers of important results: semi-finals in Rome and quarterfinals in Wimbledon, round he has already reached in this US Open. The great victory achieved against Nadal in eighth finals, first facing a top-5, is undoubtedly the best of his career.

Monfils has a great balance in 2016 with 39 wins and 11 losses, 78% of effectiveness that placed him as fifth player with better winning percentage after Djokovic, Murray, Raonic and Nishikori. Never before the French had been in these figures; his best record so far is 70,59% (36-15) which he got in 2014. Also, he is in a great time, he has won 18 of his last 20 matches.

Monfils has collected a great numbers of good results: quarterfinals in Australia, final in Rotterdam, quarterfinals in Indian Wells and Miami, final in Monte Carlo, semi-finals in Toronto, quarterfinals in the Olympic tournament in Rio and these quarterfinals of the US Open, where he has already equalled his best result achieved in 2010 and 2014. He has been able to beat his curse on finals also, defeating on Washington to Karlovic after saving a match point to finally clinch his first ATP 500 title after 7 finals lost. Monfils has had little luck on finals, only 6 titles after 25 attempts.

Monfils is together with Del Potro, the only player in this U.S. Open who has not yet lost a set. The number 12 in the world has defeated in consecutive sets to Müller, Satral, Almagro and Baghdatis. His statistics in the tournament are fantastic: fourth in percentage of service points won (69,41%) and 11th in percentage of return points won (43,25%). He has converted 21 breaks and has received 6.

Pouille´s tournament has not been so comfortable. He overturned a 0-1 down against Kukushkin in first round, a 0-2 facing Chiudinelli in his next match and in third round he also had to come from behind a 1-2 down with Bautista. Finally, in eighth finals, he overturned a 4-2 down in the last set against Nadal. Pouille has played 17 of the possible 18 sets to show up in this round with 12 hours and 52 minutes on court.



Although Pouille is a player in steady progress, there is no doubt that the favourite to win because his experience and his great form is Monfils. The overtime (5 hours) spending by Pouille on court is a factor that can be decisive; because there is no doubt he comes very fatigued to this match. In any case, bearing in mind the great moment of form and the Pouille´s fight spirit is not crazy to think he could be the first player able to steal a set to Monfils. The quota with which is paid the set of the number 25 in the world, 1.73, is in the limit of the value and can be attractive.


Gabriel García

Preview US Open: Murray vs Dimitrov

6-3 leads Murray the H2H, their last showdown was in Miami this season and Dimitrov got the victory in the midst of the Scottish´s “paternal” crisis.

After a fateful season, the Bulgarian seems to have regained confidence in this American tour. He has reached quarters finals on Toronto, semi-finals on Cincinnati and this eighth round on New York, with the exception of the Olympic tournament. His balance in the last 13 matches, 10-3, has let him to rise from the position 40 to 23 in the ATP ranking. The Bulgarian´s global balance this season is 30-19.

Many better numbers presents Murray who is on Djokovic´s wheel thanks to his balance of 53 wins and 7 losses. A 88,33% which would be, if he is able to keep it until the end of the season, the best percentage of his career, surpassing the 85.71% he got in 2009.

The Scottish is on a streak of 7 consecutive finals (Madrid, Rome, Paris, Queen’s, Wimbledon, Rio and Cincinnati) winning 4 of them (Rome, Queen’s, Wimbledon and Rio). He has resolved his last 26 matches with 25 victories allowing him to dream with surpassing Djokovic as number one in the world, position that the Serbian seems to have in property. In fact, they are separated by only 1215 points on the RACE, which would be only 415 if the Olympic tournament would have counted ATP points as same as London 2012.

In this US Open Murray resolved easily his first two matches, against Rosol and Granollers, but Lorenzi got him in troubles and was able to snatch him a set. For his part Dimitrov had to overcome a 1-2 down facing Chardy and he also lost a set against Sousa. The statistics indicate that Murray is performing a very complete tournament being sixth in the classifications of %service points won and %return points won, with 69,85% and 45,26% respectively. Dimitrov appears with 64,29% and 42,34% in these tables.



The prediction cannot be other than a victory for Murray, undisputed favourite of the match. However, we do not see a clear combination. The 1.17 paid for Murray´s victory may have some value, but with these quotas we are not in favour of taking action. Dimitrov, with a quota of 5,00 does not have value and by extension his handicaps neither. Nor over games has particularly attractive. Perhaps in this case the best thing is just enjoy the game.


Gabriel García

Preview US Open: Nishikori vs Karlovic

Finalist in Canada and Olympic bronze medal, the Japanese Nishikori is going through a great moment. Fourth in the Race, after Djokovic, Murray and Raonic, the Japanese is doing a great season with 49 wins and 14 losses and a good handful of importants results which show that the Japanese has reached a great regularity. Of his 14 losses, 9 have been facing Djokovic (5), Nadal (2), and Murray (2). Nishikori hardly lose with lower ranking players.

Facing Kei a reborn Ivo Karlovic who seems to be living a second youth. 37-year-old Croatian is completing an incredible weeks, with titles on Newport and Los Cabos, finalist in Washington, where he had match point against Monfils, third round in Toronto and these eighth finals in New York, his best result ever in this tournament after 13 entries. His season´s balance is 25 wins and 16 losses, divided into two sections; the first from beginning of season to Wimbledon with 8 victories and 13 defeats, after beginning the year with 6 consecutive losses. In the second part, since Newport, he has an impressive record of 17 wins and 3 losses.  It is not surprising that the Croatian has risen 15 ATP positions, to 23, in recent weeks.

Karlovic´s serve is on fire. He scored 61 aces facing Lu in first round – absolute record in a US Open match – for a total of 99 in the tournament, just one behind Isner who has scored 100. The Croat leads the table of %serve points won (74,21%). He has only lost two games at serve in the tournament (against Lu and Donaldson) and has only faced 12 break points. With a score of 96,92% service games won, he has the best percentage of the tournament also in this classification.

Another aspect which explains these latest results is the performance he is showing in tie-breaks. He has won 17 of his last 21, a stratospheric 81% which is even more incredible since Karlovic is not a real expert in that part of the game despite the incredible number of tiebreakers he has played, his balance is 329 won and 320 lost. Which means that this strake of + 17 in the past two months has given him over 50%.

The head-to-head between these two players is 2-1 to the Croatian who won in the Davis Cup 2012 and on Delray Beach 2013. Nishikori won the latest clash in Memphis 2014. The three matches were played on hard surface. An additional concern for the Japanese is that in matches played between them Karlovic has managed even to improve his percentage of service points won: 73.1% with the Japanese against an average in his career of 72,49%.



Despite his superiority in the ranking and his status of finalist at the US Open, Nishikori, a player much more complete than the Croatian, however may have serious problems if the Croatian serve as he has done these weeks. It is very likely that the tiebreaks decide the match. Nishikori comes playing them very well this season with 13 won and 8 lost, but that mark gets small before the 17-4 scored by Karlovic in recent weeks. In favour of the Japanese is the fact that Karlovic just has played one match against a top-10 in the season (he was defeated by Murray in three consecutive set at Roland Garros) and Karlovic can tell the difference of level. In any case, the bookmakers punished, as they often do, Karlovic´s options and, in our opinion, with a quota of 4,50, the value is on the Croatian side.


Gabriel García