Preview US Open: Thiem vs Carreno Busta

Both players come in a very good moment to this third round of the US Open. The Austrian Thiem, the sensation of the year, shows up in this US Open with 4 titles (Buenos Aires, Acapulco, Nice and Stuttgart) and a balance of 51 wins and 16 losses. With 67 matches played, he is the player with the highest activity of the ATP tour.

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For his part, the Spanish Carreno-Busta, after falling eliminated at the finals of Sao Paulo and Estoril, has won his first ATP title last week in Winston-Salem, on hard surface. Something unexpected since his best results always has been on clay where he is a skilled specialist.

Carreno holds a balance this season of 33 wins and 20 losses. In the American season on hard surface his records is 10 wins and 2 losses and he has now gone 7 matches without defeat, including a stunning comeback to Tipsarevic in the second round, when he was losing 0-2.

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The Austrian leads 2 – 0 the h2h, with victories in Gstaad last year and in Buenos Aires this same season; on both occasions the Spanish managed to win a set to Thiem. There is also a precedent in the challenger circuit, at Como 2013, Carreno won that match 6-2 5-7 6-0. So the Spanish has already gotten a taste victory facing the genius Austrian.

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The both players career at Grand Slam tournaments is still short. For Thiem this is his 12th participation in a Grand Slam and only the third at US Open. Roland Garros´s semi-finals this year are his best result. In New York he got reach to quarters finals in the year of his debut (2014) and this year he has already equalled the third round achieved last year.

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Carreno is playing here his 14th main draw at a Grand Slam. His best result is a third round at US Open 2014. It is curious that a highly specialized on clay player, is getting his best results on hard surface.

What Carreno have not yet achieved is beating a top-10. 10 matches and 10 losses with only two sets won, two bagels and six 1-6 received. It seems that is being hard for him manage the matches against the best tennis player in the world. Maybe today he could make this step forward.

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FORECAST

Although the favourite is Thiem, the time is very favourable for the Spanish whose confidence levels should be at his maximum. However, the Austrian seems to have lost something of energy and since Wimbledon he holds a balance of 4 wins and 4 losses. He had serious problems with Millman in the first round and against Berankis, although he won in consecutive sets, he did not leave the impression of strength that was expected of him. We think that the match can be very tight and a handicap of sets or games to Carreno might be a good choice, without ruling out that the Spanish could spring a surprise.

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Gabriel García

Preview US Open: Del Potro vs David Ferrer

Favourable balance to David Ferrer (6-3) who however faces this match after a very disappointing season, in which he has got 28 wins by 17 losses, for a percentage of effectiveness of 62,22%, the lowest since 2006.

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On the other hand, Juan Martin Del Potro has reasons to be happy. After more than two years in the dry patch because of his wrist injury, the Argentine has returned to his best fit evel and being competitive at the highest level. His current ranking is the result of the agony he has suffered, an absurd 142 in the ATP list. In the last three months he has beaten players as Thiem, Dimitrov, Simon, Wawrinka and he has performed a great Olympic tournament in which he defeated to Djokovic and Nadal, he only was defeated by Murray in a tight final.

Del Potro, one of the six champions of the US Open still active, participates for eighth time in this tournament, after his absence the past two years. His tournament record is 22 wins and 6 losses, with the title of 2009 as his best result, not only in the tournament, but in his career. This year he has defeated Schwartzman and Johnson without losing a single set.

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This is the 14th participation to Ferrer. He has a balance of 32 wins and 13 losses and his best results are the semi-finals in 2007 and 2012. On both occasions he was defeated by Novak Djokovic. In this edition he has already equalled the third round he got last year, after his victory against the Ukraine Dolgopolov (retired) and being able to survive in a tough match with Fognini after coming for behind 2 sets to 1 down.

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This season, the Spanish is having serious problems at service; with only 62,60% of service points won and 78,46% service games won. This is the main problem of Ferrer and that is why his results this season are far of what is expected of him. Especially when his percentage of return points won, always among the best in the ATP, has fallen more than three points from last year.

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FORECAST

The time is clearly favourable to Del Potro who will show up on the court as the undisputed favourite. The h2h balance should not have impact given that last match played between these two players dates back to 2013. Although Ferrer fighting spirit never is neglected is not unreasonable to think of a Argentine victory  in straight sets.

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Gabriel García

Preview US Open: David Ferrer vs Fabio Fognini

To Fognini, Ferrer is his authentic bête noire as shows their personal balance in which David leads clearly 9-0. No other player has a score so positive with the Italian.

In those 9 matches, Fognini has been able to win only two sets.

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Both players come to this match far away from their best feelings. Ferrer has gone from disappointment to disappointment -the latest were his defeat in second round of the Olympic tournament against Donskoy and the one suffered by the hand of Benneteau, ranked 294, in Cincinnati- and seems clear that his levels of confidence and motivation are below minimum.

The Spanish is showing this season obvious problems at service. He barely wins 63% of his serve points and his percentage of games won at service is a discrete 78,60%. Certainly he has an important handicap and that is why his balance of the season is unusual for him, 27 wins and 17 losses, which mean a fall to the position 13 in the ATP ranking, after 292 consecutive weeks in the top-10.

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On the other hand, Fognini comes into this match with a balance of 19 wins and 16 losses and the title of Umag as his best result. The Italian has shown his usual irregularity, alternating important victories (Johnson, Paire) with defeats against players with a much lower ranking.

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In the first round, facing Gabashvili, he was forced to come for behind two sets down in a crazy match in where there were a total of 19 breaks.

 

FORECAST

Fognini has a great chance of winning for first time to Ferrer and clean up a bit the humiliating score that the Spanish has on him. If the Italian plays with confident, without the h2h pressure, solid and without hasting, he can win without problems since Ferrer strokes have lost much consistent. With an odd of 2,90 the value is on the Fognini´s side who should break once his negative statistics facing Ferrer.

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Gabriel García

Preview US Open: Steve Johnson vs Del Potro

Probably is the most attractive match of the day, although there are not previous precedents of this clash. The current ranking of Del Potro (142) cannot result misleading, as his condition of silver medal in the Olympic testifies. The Argentine player has not played too much this year, burdened by his wrist injury. But when he has played, he has shown throughout his level of top: he beat Thiem in Madrid, Dimitrov and Simon in Stuttgart and Wawrinka at Wimbledon.

In all those tournaments he could not keep regularity but on the Olympic tournament of Rio he could finally complete a brilliant performance from beginning to end: he eliminated Djokovic, Bautista and Nadal losing the final to Murray after a very tough match.

Because the ATP has not recognized points for the Olympic tournament, Del Potro continues in that position 142, waiting wild cards to participate in tournaments, this situation is both illogical and unrealistic.

In this US Open, Del Potro, one of the six active players winners of this tournament, has made his debut with a victory in three consecutive sets – although not as comfortable as the score seems to indicate – against his compatriot Schwartzman. With that victory, the Argentine has a positive balance this season of 19 wins and 9 losses.

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Steve Johnson is another player who comes into this tournament in a very good moment. After a great grass season (fourth round in Wimbledon, title in Nottingham, quarters in Queen’s) the American has known keep playing well in the American season on hard (semi-finals in Washington, quarter finals in Rio and Cincinnati). On the way, he got victories against Dimitrov, Harrison, Isner and Tsonga. These good results have made him to ascend to the post 22 in the ATP, quite close of the top-20.

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It is the sixth participation in the New York tournament for the Californian. His best performance was in 2012 when he reached the third round. In Grand Slam, the aforementioned fourth round in the last Wimbledon is his best result.

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FORECAST

With both players in a very good moment, it is expected a long and tight match. Bookmakers, impressed by the performance of the Argentine at Rio, are turning forwards Del Potro. However, is difficult to know how he can respond to a long and tough match. What is certain is that all the value is in the Johnson´s side. An over of games and a moderate bet by the victory of the American offer an undeniable value.

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Gabriel García

Preview US Open: Nadal vs Seppi

This is a classic match in the circuit. It is the ninth edition of a clash which Nadal dominates clearly 7-1, dating back that single victory of the Italian to Rotterdam 2008.

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This season is being very negative to Seppi. He finished 2015 in the position number 29 of the ATP ranking and currently he occupies the 87th. He has lost 58 positions and he has a negative balance, 18 wins and 19 losses and he only has passed the third round in Nottingham, a couple of months ago. Very far from the excellent results achieved last year. In this US Open he defends his third round in which he lost last year against Djokovic.

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Nadal, twice champion of this tournament is not at his best. The wrist injury which obligated him to leave Roland Garros when he was finding very positive feelings has meant that he had to be away from courts until the Olympics Games in Rio, where after reaching semi-finals, he could not get any more victory, being defeated by Del Potro and Nishikori. In Cincinnati, he was beaten by Borna Coric, after losing his service five times.

Is precisely in the service where Nadal is showing more vulnerable. He showed up at the US Open as the only player in the top-10 who is below 80% in service games won this season. He has broken that barrier after his match of first round with Istomin (80,08% after that match). This problem of weakness of his service occurs even though the Balearic has one of the best first service percentages of the circuit, an excellent 68% that, however, is really hard for him to take advantage of that.

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But certain is that everything he loses at service he gets it as returner. He is leader of the circuit on percentage of return games won, with a 37,02% (194 of 524). This capability, which he has made brilliant in his entire career, allows him to hide his problems at serve with quite effectively.

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It is true that for Seppi has been always difficult to take advantage of that weakness. In their 8 matches played, he only has been able to break Nadal´s service in 15 occasions, converting a 34,09% of the 44 opportunities of breaks points he disposed. In the last match between them, second round of the Olympic tournament in Rio, he only had two chances which missed. Nadal won with total authority, 6-3 6-3.

Seppi defends third round in this edition of the US Open which is his best result, he also reached that round in 2008 and 2013. The Balearic defends the same round after losing last year against Fognini in that famous match in which the Spanish champion bottomed out.

FORECAST

The victory of Nadal over Seppi, a player to whom he has always beat easily, seems clear. However, there are many uncertainties surrounding the Balearic, starting by his physical condition. The defeat against Coric in Cincinnati may be due to fatigue accumulated in the Olympic tournament, but we could not see a reliable Rafa in Rio either, always with many problems when he comes to serve. A set for Seppi is paid to 2,37, we calculate a value for this odd of 20%. It is true that Seppi does not get a set from Nadal since 2009 and  last match between them was very comfortable for the Spanish, but tomorrow Seppi can have a last opportunity to get Nadal into trouble even though he will fight as he always does.

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Gabriel García

Preview US Open: Sock vs Zverev

The American Sock is doing a season similar to that of the previous year 2015. 23 wins and 15 losses for a percentage of 60,53%, slightly lower to the 66,04% (35-18) with which he completed last season.

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Sock has found a certain level of regularity which manifests itself in some statistics: for example, he has a good balance against players over the top-100, 22 wins and 7 losses. He only has lost two times in first round this year and in Grand Slam he went through the second round in Australia and third round in Roland Garros and Wimbledon. In New York he successfully asserted his experience in the fifth set against Fritz. In the absence of outstanding achievements, Sock is reaching a good level of reliability facing lower ranking players.

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Zverev won last Monday his first Grand Slam match since 2009, breaking a streak of eight consecutive defeats, five of them in consecutive sets. His balance on Grand Slam matches is 5 wins and 16 losses and only once he went through to a third round, in Wimbledon 2008.

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Nor his curriculum against top-30 players is very prominent. Since 2011 he has a balance of 2 wins and 15 losses.

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This year he has 4 wins and 8 losses and his main activity is in the challenger circuit, where he has a record of 11-6.

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FORECAST

Sock is not only the favourite to win, he is also a player more regular that rarely fails against lower players. Zverev does not play a second round of Grand Slam since 2009. The victory in consecutive sets of the American is paid to 2.75, with an estimated value according to our module of probability calculation of 18%, we think that this could be an interesting bet.

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Gabriel García

Preview US Open: Djokovic vs Vesely

Vesely leads the H2H 1-0 against the number one in the world thanks to his victory in the second round of the last edition of Monte Carlo, 6-4 2-6 6-4, in what was the greatest surprise of the tournament.

The Serbian has had to face two hard disappointments in the past months. First, the defeat in the third round of Wimbledon against Sam Querrey and then his elimination from the Olympic tennis tournament at the hands of Juan Martin del Potro. In between, he got the Toronto Masters title, the 30th of his career, absolute record of titles in tournaments in this category.

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The Serbian has an impressive record against players ranked 45th or higher in the ATP ranking (Vesely is 49th). Since Queen’s 2010, when he lost in the third round against Malisse, Djokovic has got 126 wins by only two defeats, mentioned before against Vesely in Monte Carlo and the also referred against Del Potro – a player of a very superior level to his current ranking – in the first round of the Olympic tournament of Rio.

Nor does it seem much trouble Djokovic when he has to play against left-handed opponents. Since 2011 he only has lost with three players: Vesely in Monte Carlo, Feliciano Lopez in Dubai this same year, when he had the eye´s problem and Nadal who has beaten him 7 times. 9 total defeats facing left-handed in the last 6 seasons by 51 victories, 19 of them over Rafa Nadal. Not seems, then, the Serbian be affected by left-handed condition.

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On the other hand Vesely, one of the most promising young of the circuit, is performing a season with quite a few ups and downs, being the second round at Wimbledon his best result, where he was close to beat Berdych and sneak into quarter finals. His record this season is 18 wins and 20 losses.  The Czech defends third round at the US Open.

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FORECAST

Surely Djokovic will try to take the revenge of the defeat in Monte Carlo. Although his first match against Jancowicz has not been all positive which could be expected – he even lost the second set – it was to be hope a remarkable improvement in his performance to show everyone t he is still the King of world tennis. For his part, Vesely had many difficulties to beat the Indian Myneni and do not seem he is going to be able to stand up to Djokovic. The victory of Djokovic by 3-0 is paid 1,53 , it is a true value according to our probability generator and we believe that it is a quite interesting bet.

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Gabriel García

The weekly data. Monfils breaks the spell

Up to four ATP tournaments have been played this week, something completely unusual. Adjustments to the fit of the Olympic tournament continue impacting on those tournaments that have been affected by changes in the calendar. Michael Stich, director of Hamburg ATP500, already lashed out last week against this situation and it can be assumed that in Washington, Gstaad, Umag and Kitzbuhel will not be best pleased either, especially in Toronto where the Masters 1000 has been placed just a few days before the Olympic Games. The damages to the tournaments, in particular with regard to participation, are evident.

Leaving aside the problems of the ATP calendar – business is business after all – let´s say that the big winner of the week was Gael Monfils, winner of the ATP 500 in Washington after defeating on the final to Ivo Karlovic by the score of 5-7 7-6(6) 6-4. It is the sixth title for the French, in 25 finals, so the victory clears somehow the label of loser that pursues to the Gallic. Monfils’s list of finals

And the true is that Monfils was nearly to lose the final. Karlovic served with 7-5 5-4 to win the match. Given that the Croatian had not lost nor a single service in the tournament – no less than 53 service games consecutive won – all seemed lost for the Parisian. However, at that time Karlovic faltered and although he could come from behind a 0-40, he could not save the next break point and he lost his service. The Gallic still had to save a match ball in the tie-break but then he won easily to Karlovic, who was completely despondent.

It is the first ATP 500 title for Monfils, something somewhat surprising for a player of that level who had previously played three Masters 1000 and five ATP 500 finals. Karlovic played his 17th final, but the first one in a category higher than ATP 250 tournaments. The 108 aces that he got in the tournament – 21.6 per match – were insufficient to clinch the title; maybe, just one more ace in that fateful tenth game of the second set would have been enough to change the history. Surely Ivo will long remember in the memory the missed chance. Washington 2016 stats

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In Gstaad, where was finalist 10 years ago, Feliciano López shone again and won the fifth title of his career – first on clay – by defeating the Dutchman Robin Haase 6-4 7-5. The last title of the Spanish dated back to June 2014 when he triumphed on the grass of Eastbourne. With this title Lopez has joined the exclusive club of players who have won ATP title on grass, clay and hard court. Feli, who comes back to the ATP top 20, is the sixth Spanish winner of a title this year, after Nadal, Bautista, Almagro, Verdasco and Ramos-Vinolas. The Armada, if not with the strength of a couple of years, continues giving much to talk about in the circuit.

Another veteran, Paolo Lorenzi, was the winner on the ATP 250 of Kitzbühel by defeating the Georgian Nikoloz Basilashvili 6-3 6-4. The Italian not only opened his track record, but he also broke an ATP record since to his 34 years and 7 months of age is the player with more age in wins his first title. A great reward for this player who has never been able to settle down definitely in the ATP circuit and he has spent most of his career playing challenger tournaments, where he has achieved 18 titles and has played 15 finals. Lorenzi will be listed next Monday in the position 41 of the ATP classification, his best ranking ever, an additional reward that will allow him to access many main draws directly.

In Kitzbühel reappeared after nearly a year staying out of the courts the Austrian Jurgen Melzer, former top-10. And he made it to the bigs, defeating his compatriot and great revelation of the season Dominic Thiem. Then, at quarters final, he was defeated in a tight match by his brother Gerald, but the two victories in the tournament, coupled with his victory in the Davis Cup last week against Illya Marchenko, show that the left handed player of 35 years has still desire to keep competing.

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And in Umag, finally, Fabio Fognini clinched the title by defeating a first ever finalist in an ATP final, the Slovak Andrej Martin by the score of 6-4 6-1. The Italian smiled again after a debacle in the Davis Cup last week when he was beating by Delbonis. The finalist Marin joins others players of the challenger circuit as Basilashvili, Lorenzi, Elias, Monteiro, Ymer, Pavlasek or Gerald Melzer, who are proving they can compete perfectly on ATP 250 tournaments and they are capable to beat any player; Simon, Bellucci, Granollers, Cuevas, Klizan, Carreno-Busta and Sousa can attest to this.

The Masters 1000 return to scene with the Toronto´s tournament. The top brass of the tennis world returns to the courts albeit with some absence from normal in a tournament of this category. By different reasons, Murray, Federer, Nadal, Tsonga, Gasquet and Ferrer will not play in Canada. The number one in the world will be there, Novak Djokovic, we assume he is eager to take the sting out of his lost in Wimbledon, but with the Olympic Games on the immediate horizon lot of things can happen.

Gabriel Garcia / thetennisbase.com

Monfils rallies past Karlovic for Washington crown

France’s Gael Monfils saved a match point and battled back to capture his sixth career ATP title, defeating Ivo Karlovic 5-7, 7-6 (8/6), 6-4 in Sunday’s Washington Open final.

The 29-year-old Frenchman, who had not won a crown since 2014 at Montpellier, took his first ATP title outside of Europe and his first outdoor trophy since Sopot in 2005 as well as claiming the top prize of $348,200 (317,266 euro) on the US capital hardcourts.

Monfils withstood a barrage of 27 aces from the 37-year-old Croatian, firing back 16 of his own. He ended Karlovic’s streak of 70 unbroken service games when the Croatian served for the match in the 10th game of the second set.

Flamboyant Monfils denied Karlovic on a match point in the second-set tiebreaker as well, broke him again in the third game of the final set and held from there to win in two hours and 13 minutes.

Monfils became the third French player to win the Washington crown after Yannick Noah in 1985 and Arnaud Clement in 2006.

“This tournament means a lot to me,” said Monfils. “When I first came here I saw the (champion) names — Arthur Ashe, Yannick Noah — and they have been inspirations for me. I’m very proud and very happy to have my name next to them.”

Monfils improved to 6-19 in ATP finals, including a 2011 Washington final loss to Radek Stepanek. Monfils had dropped his prior three finals in a row, including in February at Rotterdam and April at Monte Carlo, and eight of his past nine finals since 2011.

Karlovic, who fell to 7-9 in ATP finals, won his seventh career title last week on Newport grass to become the oldest tour singles champion since 1979.

“Congratulations to Gael,” Karlovic said. “Well done.”

– Wickmayer seeks women’s crown –

Belgian seventh seed Yanina Wickmayer, a 2009 US Open semi-finalist seeking her fifth WTA title, was to face 122nd-ranked American Lauren Davis in Sunday’s WTA Washington final.

Monfils, who will jump from 17th to 14th in the world rankings, was the week’s best at breaking serves and overcame Karlovic’s powerful ball bashing in sweltering heat and humidity.

Karlovic, ranked 35th, had not dropped a service game in Washington entering the final and averaged more than 20 aces a match this week.

Monfils double faulted away a break in the 11th game of the first set, then squandered three break points in the 12th game after moving closer to the baseline to counter Karlovic’s serves.

Karlovic blasted a 141-mph ace with his hardest serve of the match to save the last break point, then after Monfils sent a backhand wide, Karlovic followed with an overhead smash to claim the first set.

Karlovic broke on an overhead smash for a 5-4 lead in the second set, but again handed Monfils triple break point only to save them all, this time with an overhead smash, a second-serve ace and a backhand volley winner.

But Monfils responded with a forehand volley winner and Karlovic sent a forehand long to surrender a break after having held in 70 consecutive service games, including all 53 prior at Washington.

In the tie-breaker, Karlovic hit a service winner to reach match point at 6-5 but Monfils answered with two service winners of his own and Karlovic then netted a forehand volley to surrender the set.

Monfils broke for a 2-1 lead in the deciding set when Karlovic flicked a backhand long.

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Fognini beats Martin to win fourth title

Italian Fabio Fognini claimed his fourth ATP Tour title by seeing off Slovakia’s Andrej Martin 6-4, 6-1 in the final in Umag, Croatia.

Fourth seed Fognini, 29, took the opening set with a break in game ten, before easing through the second by a double break to take the victory in just 70 minutes.

“It’s the final. Both players had nothing to lose. For me there was everything to win because I was the favourite,” said world number 39 Fognini.

“I have to be happy. A title is always a title. It was a great week of tennis.”

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